In light of Doretha’s insistence that this is not a lottery, I’ll try to stop using that word. But I am also against “choice”, so this “assignment” is the last neutral territory I can come up with.
I received an email from a mom who was concerned about her choices. I’ll not divulge too much information, but she has given me permission to relay the story here for learning purposes. She is considering Private school but wants to give Public school a shot if it will work out.
“We have no proximity A school, no siblings, and a high SES. So, if I’m reading your blog and other info correctly, we really have a very limited “choice” of schools and realistically will have to choose between Kenwood, Garden Hills (our proximity B school), Stratton, Washington, and Dr. Howard. I’d be interested to know if you think that conclusion is correct. Would there be any use in making our first choice Westview, Robeson, or Southside, where the number of people who made it their first choice was below the actual number of seats available last year?”
After reading through the rest of the email and commenting on the subjective nature of perceptions, etc, the objective part of my response was as follows:
You already have a good grip on how the cards are stacked. Last year, if you put Westview or Robeson as your first choice, you would have gotten it. Will that happen again this year? Probably. South Side was chosen by 48 people as a First Choice and only 46 seats were available. With more people choosing Carrie Busey as a First Choice (probably – its a brand new school), South Side might have some First Choice slots open. Keep in mind that the odds last year were pretty darn good – only 3 out of 48 did not get their First Choice for South Side. (I know, you are thinking “Wait, 48-46 = 2, not 3!” It turns out that one other Proximity A parent was denied because of the reserve for Proximity B parents). However, your chance of getting Westview or Robeson as a 2nd Choice are a little more grim; 6/52 [6 out of 52] Robeson 2nd Choices were fulfilled and 8/74 [8 out of 74] Westview 2nd Choices were fulfilled. Those are not betting numbers.Bottom-line: If you makes you feel better, you have a pretty high chance of getting into Westview, Robeson or South Side if you make one of those your first choice. Again, we are talking about chances based on historical data. Keep in mind you will be wait-listed for your first choice as well.